Not long ago, the Huangmaoxia Reservoir Project with a total investment of 13.5 billion yuan commenced construction in Qingyuan, Guangdong. This initiative marks not only a critical step in strengthening the flood control system along the Beijiang River but will also establish a Class IV navigation system, extending 500-ton vessel access deep into the Lianjiang River hinterland. Additionally, the project is expected to generate over 100 million kWh of green electricity annually... demonstrating its remarkable multiplier effect.
A multitude of major projects have provided crucial support to Guangdong’s economy in the first half of the year, revealing the province’s new development approach: while accelerating project implementation, greater emphasis is now placed on their long-term growth potential and strategic significance.
Following the recent release of GDP figures in the first half of the year for all 21 cities in Guangdong and combined with the province’s earlier overall economic report, how can we identify more profound economic shifts from a region that pioneered structural transformation and confronted emerging challenges ahead of others?
Growth under pressure: How Guangdong “ensures stability through advancement” in foreign trade?
Deceptively ordinary yet remarkably resilient. Guangdong’s foreign trade has long been characterized by strong export orientation and massive import-export volumes. Naturally, its vast trade base means every percentage point of growth demands extraordinary effort.
In the first half of the year, Guangdong’s GDP reached 6.87254 trillion yuan, a 4.2% year-on-year increase. Compared with the recently released national half year figures and Guangdong’s full year growth target, there remains a certain gap. But from a longer term perspective, the province has seen growth for three consecutive quarters, with the upward trend gradually consolidating.
As the saying goes, “A storm tests the strength of the grass.” Since the start of the year, instability brought about by factors such as the “tariff war” has dealt Guangdong a heavier external blow. Against this backdrop, a 4% year‑on‑year growth in foreign trade in the first half is all the more hard‑won.
Beyond the headline figures, a closer look at more detailed data reveals the highlights: under pressure, Guangdong’s foreign trade has achieved positive growth for eight consecutive quarters, 1.1 percentage points higher than the national average. Its contribution to the country’s overall foreign trade growth has even expanded to 28%. In many sectors and cities with even higher dependence on foreign trade, a trend of counter‑cyclical growth has emerged.
This stability is anchored in innovation. At the height of trade tensions in the first half of the year, a new camera developed by Shenzhen‑based Insta360 sparked long queues of consumers in New York before dawn—showing how innovative, original products can sharpen foreign trade advantages in turbulent times. This was solidly reflected in economic data: Shenzhen’s total import–export volume reached 2.17 trillion yuan, the highest in the province. Notably, exports of high‑tech products from Shenzhen grew 8.0% year‑on‑year, with the “new” in technology and products driving the “progress” in foreign trade.
Behind stability lies a structural shift in trade. In the first half of the year, major trade hubs such as Dongguan and Guangzhou also staged a strong rebound. By consolidating traditional partners and expanding into new ones, these cities weathered the storms of the trade war. Dongguan’s trade with traditional markets like the EU grew 10.9% year‑on‑year, while trade with emerging markets saw even stronger gains: ASEAN (+43.5%), India (+21.5%), the Middle East (+31.5%), Latin America (+13.1%), and Central Asia (+63.6%). At the provincial level, Guangdong’s imports and exports with ASEAN totaled 757.13 billion yuan, up 5.9%, accounting for 16.6% of the province’s total foreign trade—0.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Trade with Belt and Road partner countries reached 1.79 trillion yuan, up 3.8% year‑on‑year.
Under pressure, can the positive momentum in foreign trade be sustained into the second half of the year? This is a question that goes beyond the figures and draws even greater public attention.
Digging deeper into the more profound changes behind the data, one word stands out in Guangdong’s first‑half foreign trade figures: “vitality.”
First, the vitality of foreign trade enterprises has increased. In the first half of the year, Guangdong had 130,000 enterprises with actual import–export activity, up 7.6%. Notably, private enterprises remain steadily more active within Guangdong’s foreign trade landscape: the number of private foreign trade firms reached 110,000, an 8.6% increase; their total import–export value hit 2.92 trillion yuan, up 4.3%, accounting for 64.2% of the province’s total foreign trade—0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year. Their role as the backbone in stabilizing foreign trade has become even more prominent.
At the same time, foreign‑invested enterprises remain active in investing in Guangdong. Just a few days ago, the ExxonMobil Huizhou Ethylene Project in the Huizhou Daya Bay Petrochemical Industrial Park officially went into operation. This is the first major petrochemical project in China wholly funded and built by a U.S. company. Such developments have translated into tangible gains in foreign trade data: in the first half of the year, imports and exports of Guangdong’s foreign‑invested enterprises reached 1.42 trillion yuan, up 5.5%. The unwavering commitment of foreign enterprises to “regular investment” and “long‑term investment” in Guangdong is clear to see.
More importantly, Guangdong’s market judgment and choices remain flexible. For many industries in the province, the “tariff war” is no longer an unexpected battle: as early as 2018, many export‑oriented firms had already felt the deep impact of tariff frictions. In recent years, regardless of external changes, expanding the “circle of friends” and accelerating market transformation have been firm choices for Guangdong’s foreign trade enterprises. “Diversifying trade markets” has become the dominant theme.
Vitality unleashed: How will the consumption powerhouse hone its “internal” strength in the second half of the year?
Just as foreign trade enterprises have grown accustomed to adjusting their pace while running, Guangdong’s economy as a whole has also learned to shift momentum and plan for the future amid challenges.
In the first half of the year, Guangzhou’s total retail sales of consumer goods reached 561.122 billion yuan, up 5.9% year‑on‑year, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the first quarter. Huizhou saw a 5.5% year‑on‑year increase, 1.5 percentage points higher than in the first quarter… Across the province, local consumption markets are steadily recovering. According to the province’s mid‑year economic “report card,” total retail sales of consumer goods in Guangdong grew 3.5% year‑on‑year in the first half, with the growth rate 1 percentage point faster than in the first quarter.
Sustained marginal improvement in economic growth requires not only continuously boosting consumer demand but also activating the endogenous drivers of development. Not long ago, Guangdong issued the “Work Plan for Promoting Sustained Economic Improvement and Serving the Strengthening of the Domestic Circulation”, proposing to host a domestic trade version of the Canton Fair using a market-oriented exhibition model. While safeguarding the fundamentals of foreign trade, Guangdong is focusing on the joint force of the “three growth engines”—investment, consumption, and imports & exports—placing new emphasis on domestic trade and emerging areas of domestic demand. This is now a key area of effort for the province.
As China’s most populous province, Guangdong shows no hesitation when it comes to consumption. So, how can it continue to achieve both “thriving population” and “thriving prosperity” in the second half of the year?
A closer look at the first‑half data reveals that Guangdong’s online consumption is steadily unlocking its potential. Retail sales of goods by large‑scale enterprises through public online platforms grew 20.3%, with the growth rate accelerating by 4.0 percentage points. This shows that the diversification and convenience of consumption methods have become key drivers behind Greater Bay Area consumers’ enthusiasm for shopping.
In recent years, tackling the challenge of a “large population but limited spending power” to further expand domestic demand has been a policy priority for Guangdong. Since last year, the province has leveraged its local consumption characteristics to include mobile phones, smartwatches, and other 3C products in its subsidy scope, pioneering the release of the Guangdong “3C Product Subsidy Catalog.” Under the backdrop of the “tariff war,” this move carries even greater practical significance: it not only opened up market networks in advance for integrated domestic and foreign trade, but also laid the foundation for stabilizing consumption in the second half of the year.
So how can consumption demand be expanded more fully and comprehensively? Guangdong chooses to collaborate with Hong Kong and Macao, leveraging the “Greater Bay Area identity” to boost commercial vitality across cities and foster more dynamic, diversified consumer markets. In May this year, the “Shop in China 2025 Greater Bay Area Consumption Season” was launched. By continuously establishing offline consumption platforms and creating innovative consumption scenarios throughout the Greater Bay Area, it ignited spending potential and triggered a consumption wave.
By working with Hong Kong and Macao to build the Greater Bay Area into an international consumption hub, Guangdong aims to make “Coming to the Greater Bay Area” a trend, “Shopping in China” a fashion, and ensure that friends from home and abroad can experience a vibrant consumption carnival in the region. This reflects the province’s deep consideration of how to achieve both a thriving population and thriving prosperity.
From the mid‑year report, the “foresight” we observe lies not only in Guangdong’s early policy deployment, but also in the accelerating pace of implementation. Since last year, Guangdong has repeatedly emphasized in meetings and official documents the need to quickly generate tangible work output—launching more incentive policies as early as possible and as fast as possible, and, most importantly, ensuring that good policies deliver results promptly.
This development philosophy has translated into “dual‑track” construction projects gaining momentum across the Lingnan region. In the first half of the year, infrastructure investment rose 2.1%, while industrial investment accounted for 38.1% of total investment. Notably, investment in automobile manufacturing and in petroleum, coal, and other fuel processing industries grew 14.6% and 57.9% respectively. Accelerating the launch of reserve projects and speeding up construction of ongoing ones—getting machines running and worksites bustling—has become a consensus among Guangdong’s departments in advancing projects.
The acceleration of policy rollout also comes with clear priorities: in manufacturing‑led Guangdong, industrial transformation and upgrading is moving forward at a faster pace. Investment in industrial technological transformation grew 1.8%, with investment in the technological transformation of computer, communications, and other electronic equipment manufacturing rising 12.8%. Investment in industrial technical transformation accounted for 34.1% of total industrial investment—2.8 percentage points higher than in the same period last year. At the same time, Guangdong is cutting its traditional reliance on real estate, with the support strength of its industrial and investment structures steadily increasing.
New tide surging: How will the “technology powerhouse” forge new advantages again?
Just a few days ago, in Shenzhen, the world’s first humanoid robot capable of changing its own battery was born.
Achieving 24-hour uninterrupted operation, this represents not only a milestone breakthrough in robotics but also reflects Guangdong’s strategic focus in advancing new quality productive forces.
In the first half of the year, the wave of humanoid robot development was surging and gaining momentum. While seizing opportunities in emerging industries, Guangdong has gradually explored and honed its development priorities. The added value of high‑tech manufacturing grew 6.0% year‑on‑year, with the output of industrial robots and service robots increasing by 34.0% and 23.0% respectively. One out of every three industrial robots in China is made in Guangdong. Leveraging its strong manufacturing foundation and complete industrial chain, the development of “Guangdong‑brand” robots has become a vivid example of the province’s continuous effort to cultivate new quality productive forces.
Although in the first half of the year Guangdong’s fixed asset investment fell 9.7% year‑on‑year, and the growth rate of secondary industry added value (3.4%) was significantly lower than that of the tertiary industry (4.6%), a closer look beyond data reveals a deeper logic of continuous optimization in the province’s industrial structure.
Driven by favorable policies for large‑scale equipment renewal, industrial technological transformation investment accounted for 34.1% of total industrial investment in Guangdong in the first half of the year—2.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year. This type of investment itself bucked the trend, rising 1.8% year‑on‑year, with technology‑intensive industries becoming the main driving engine of Guangdong’s industrial growth. As robots capable of autonomously changing their own batteries move from laboratories to production lines, they are powering up the engine for Guangdong’s accelerated shift from old to new growth drivers.
Among released data, one figure perhaps best reflects another feature of Guangdong’s development of new quality productive forces: civilian drone output increased by 58.2% year‑on‑year.
In recent days, the Greater Bay Area’s first cross‑city, ultra‑long drone logistics route was successfully launched in Zhuhai. In Shenzhen, consumer‑grade drones manufactured locally already hold an astonishing 70% share of the global market, and using drones for food delivery has become a commonplace sight. As one of the key carriers, drone‑driven low‑altitude economy development in Guangdong vividly showcases the province’s distinctive strength in the mutual reinforcement of industry and technology.
At this year’s 137th Canton Fair, the debut of a dedicated service robot exhibition area, the participation of exhibitors from Belt and Road partner countries, and the sharp increase in visitor numbers are vivid reflections of the structural changes underway. The shift from “merely displaying” experimental products to rapidly growing into market‑oriented enterprises that deeply integrate market needs and achieve mass production demonstrates Guangdong’s advantage in intelligent manufacturing—with a supply chain capable of rapid response and quick commercialization. It also reflects the genuine demand from emerging market countries for China’s high‑tech products.
The world needs Guangdong’s market, and Guangdong possesses the capability to swiftly respond to global demands. From deepening the “manufacturing-as-cornerstone” strategy to precisely strengthening industrial chains via the “chain chief system,” from expanding markets through “Guangdong Trade Global” to the export surge of the “new trio” (EVs/lithium batteries/solar cells), it is clear that Guangdong is steadily building a “dual‑track engine” for shifting from old to new growth drivers. The constant surge of innovation‑driven momentum in its industries stems from the strength and confidence of this “top economic province.”
The fundamental driving forces of Guangdong’s economic and social development have already changed. With long‑term and short‑term strategies overlapping and being released early, Guangdong is accelerating structural transformation to tackle external challenges—this is the most critical shift currently taking place in the province’s economy.
There exists room to pivot, buffers for adjustment, preparedness for contingencies, and optimistic development projections. Looking back: amidst wind and waves, new tides surge; gazing ahead: spring peaks remain in sight.
