Source: Xinhuanet
Cartoon by Yu Aicen
Recently, as if they’ve had a deal or something, some Western politicians and media outlets smeared China in unison, distorting and fabricating negative news about the Chinese economy. Designed to back up for the so-called “derisking” theory, this new round of badmouthing was meant to shake confidence in the Chinese economy, and undermine the country’s cooperation with other nations by misleading the world and depicting China as the “source of risk” for the global economy. The prediction is, by its nature, a sequel of the “China collapse” claims that have repeatedly emerged and proved wrong over the past decades. This time, sure enough, the result will not be different.
History has witnessed many similar cases of rumors being ultimately scotched. A recent issue of the Economist had, on its cover, a scary giant dragon alluding to the Chinese economy, with the caption “China’ Economy Has Peaked”. The same dragon image appeared on a special supplement to the June 15, 2002 issue, with a headline that reads the “Breathless Chinese Dragon”. The publication predicted at the time that China’s economy would grow significantly slower in the coming decade. The truth, however, is that China’s economic growth averaged about 10.5% for that decade, well above the average of major developed economies during the same period.
The notorious China doomsayer and American Chinese scholar Gordon Chang also laid himself open to ridicule by pinpointing the time of “collapse” as “definitely before the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games”. After the prediction failed to materialize, he readjusted, time and again, the timetable for the collapse. But facts never yield to any bias, as rightly concluded by Morgan Stanley’s Honorary President of Asia Jack Wadsworth that “your ‘collapse theory’ will only exist in your book.” In December 2012, the US magazine Foreign Policy listed, on its website, Gordon Chang’s so-called “China collapse theory” as one of the ten worst predictions of the year, along with the “2012 end of the world” prediction.
Let’s return to the recent badmouthing. According to the International Monetary Fund’s latest forecast, the U.S. economy will grow by only 1.8% in 2023, the British economy by only 0.4%, while the German economy will shrink by 0.3%. As for China, its GDP grew by 5.5 percent year-on-year during the first half of 2023, the highest among all major economics in the world. The World Bank, the OECD and IMF predict respectively that China’s economy will grow by 5.6%, 5.4% and 5.2% in 2023, which is pretty good performance for any major economy and shows that China remains the “bellwether” and “engine” for global economy growth. Disregarding the facts, however, some Western politicians and media outlets have chosen to willfully speak ill of the Chinese economy, not because they are ignorant of the Chinese economy but rather that they have an axe to grind.
Making a fuss over temporary economic volatility in China, these politicians and media outlets took turns to write most unprofessionally about the Chinese economy on professional journals, by taking a part for the whole and turning geese into swans. They were most eager to raise anxiety on the pretense of offering suggestions. But what they really wanted was to spread pessimistic views about “a falling Chinese economy” to undermine public confidence in and expectations of China’s economic future, discourage investors from investing in the Chinese market, and disrupt the operation of the Chinese economy to hinder its development. Just as an article for the German weekly magazine Focus recently pointed out, China’s economic growth is twice that of the United States; China has sufficient foreign exchange reserves; and Chinas is becoming increasingly innovative… A series of solid facts show that the so-called “China collapse” is totally delusional.
A visitor looks at a service robot at the Special Exhibition of the 2023 World Computing Conference on September 15. Photo by Chen Zeguo, a Xinhua News Agency reporter
From the “overcapacity theory”, “debt crisis theory” to the “economic stall theory”, and “China collapse theory”, Western politicians and media outlets have been obsessed about overstating the downsides of China’s economy, saying that the Chinese economy was heading for “great troubles”. An article published on the British website Prickly Online pointed out that these people have hyped up pessimistic theories about China in order to seek comfort as their own countries were in deep trouble politically and economically amid energy shortage and Russia-Ukraine conflicts in the post-pandemic period. Nevertheless, none of the malicious remarks will help with their problems at home. With downgraded credit rating and high inflation, the U.S. economy is now narrowly avoiding “an economic recession”. The U.S. President Joe Biden seemed to be talking about the United States itself when he called China’s economy a ‘time bomb’, said an article in the Indonesia’s Jakarta Post.
Most recently, some Western politicians tried to sow discord among China and surrounding nations by asserting with feigned concern that “China’s slowing economy is also pulling down its Asian neighbors”. At present, China is enjoying closer economic and cooperation ties with its neighbors, which produces tangible results. Economic and trade exchanges between China and ASEAN is also deepening as the benefits of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) gradually releases. Despite these encouraging developments, the United States has been peddling the so-called “India-Pacific Strategy” to create political antagonism and economic division. That makes the design of the United States only too evident.
The scene of the 133th Session of China Import and Export Fair (Photo taken on April 15, 2023 by Liu Dawei, a Xinhua News Agency reporter)
China’s economy has always been advancing through difficulties and obstacles. While unswervingly pursing long-term economic goals, China has been constantly identifying and adapting to changes, and adjusting its policies and strategies accordingly. It has been common, in the past few years, for any economy to fluctuate before entering a period of steady recovery, due to the negative implications of the COVID-19. China’s economy recovery also follows a wavy and tortuous process. To ensure steady and high-quality economic development, the Chinese Government, leveraging its ample policy space, has introduced targeted measures against short-term volatility, while fostering new growth drivers and advantages for development in line with the long-term plan. Since Q2 this year, the World Bank, the OECD, and other international organizations have raised their forecasts for China’s economic growth this year. Major economic indicators for the country also picked up during the first eight months of this year: The value-added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 3.9% year-on-year; total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 7% year-on-year; fixed asset investment increased by 3.2% year-on-year; and retail sales of services rose by 19.4% year-on-year. In the context of global economic downturn and increasingly complex and challenging external environment, China’s economy demonstrates resilience and vitality as it continues to recover.
To understand China’s economy, one needs to take a longer view. Though it is undeniable that China is facing complicated economic situation at home and abroad, there is irrefutable evidence that China’s economy is making an upturn. Everyone should pull together in the age of globalization for badmouthing will not make oneself better, nor will it disrupt the steady development of the Chinese economy. As facts eventually scotch rumors, the “China economic collapse” theory is bound to collapse, once again.
